July 9, 2020

The longer something has taken, the longer it will take. This effect has a significant impact on any estimate on when an overdue project will finally be done - intuition and hope says it will be done soon, the math and experience says it won’t.

Related to that is the Lindy Effect: The longer a technology has been around, the longer it is likely to stay around. This has implications on, among other things, architecture.